Spectrum Renewal

Understanding the Challenge of Expiring Spectrum Licences

Spectrum licence expiry has become a defining issue for regulators and operators alike. Modern mobile networks depend on a wide portfolio of frequency layers—often 8 to 11 bands spanning sub-1 GHz, mid-bands and in some markets mmWave—and operators design their RANs holistically across this entire spectrum asset base. The loss or modification of even a small block affects load balancing, network performance and investment plans. As a result, managing Expiring Spectrum Licences (ESLs) requires far more than reissuing a document: it demands coordinated, multi-band, market-wide planning.

Mobile connectivity has also become an essential public service. It supports payments, digital identity, connected vehicles, public transport, smart-city systems and emergency communications. Any misjudgment in handling ESLs risks not only technical disruption but social and economic harm. Regulators therefore benefit from beginning the process three to four years ahead of expiry—allowing time for consultation, technical analysis and legislative adjustment if required.

Making the Right Policy Choice: Renewal, Re-auction or a Hybrid Path

Managing ESLs involves selecting between two core mechanisms:

• Renewal, where operators retain their spectrum but may be required to pay renewal fees based on benchmarks, auctions, or Optimal Deprival Value (ODV).

• Re-auction, where operators must bid to keep their holdings and potentially compete for additional spectrum.

Both approaches have merits and risks, and the legal framework often determines what is possible. Markets differ significantly in structure, competition levels, legacy licence terms and policy goals. For this reason, copying another country’s approach rarely produces optimal results.

Best Practice Spectrum Renewal

A best-practice process typically includes:

• Multi-stage stakeholder consultation, involving operators, consumer groups, rural interests, public agencies, first responders, vendors and other spectrum users.

• Holistic technical and economic assessment, recognising that operators engineer networks across all bands simultaneously.

• Clear, transparent pricing principles, especially where ODV or benchmarks are used to determine renewal fees.

These measures ensure that ESL decisions align with objectives for coverage, quality of service, competition and long-term digital infrastructure.

Turning Licence Expiry into a Strategic Opportunity

Although expiry creates risk, it is also one of the few moments where regulators and operators can reshape spectrum assets in ways that materially improve efficiency. This may include:

• Band reorganisation to reduce fragmentation and allow wider channels

• Aligning expiry dates to simplify future planning

• Rationalising narrow legacy blocks that no longer deliver cost-effective value

• Modernising licence terms, such as implementing technology neutrality or updated coverage/quality obligations

These adjustments can unlock meaningful improvements in spectrum efficiency and better prepare markets for the transition toward 5G, 6G and future technologies. Coleago helps identify and quantify these opportunities, ensuring that renewal or re-auction strengthens rather than merely preserves the status quo.

How Coleago Supports Regulators and Operators

Coleago provides comprehensive support throughout the entire ESL lifecycle. For regulators, we help define policy strategy, assess legal constraints, design renewal frameworks, support public consultation and model market impacts. We also develop pricing methodologies – including ODV, benchmarking and scenario models – and advise on licence restructuring and band plan evolution.

For operators, our work spans renewal strategy, regulatory advocacy, valuation of each expiring band and preparation for re-auction exposure. Coleago’s spectrum valuation suite uses real-world network data, busy-hour congestion modelling, and site-level capacity analysis to determine the financial and technical implications of every renewal or auction scenario. This ensures that operators understand not only what they should pay, but whether retaining each block truly supports the business case.

Why Coleago?

Our projects are delivered exclusively by partner- and director-level consultants with over 20 years’ experience. Coleago’s valuations and consultation submissions are widely respected by regulators, and our global auction-price benchmark database provides a critical reference point for both renewal pricing and auction strategy. Past engagements include renewal and re-auction support in Australia, Oman and several African markets.